A New Opportunity for the 2002 Arab Initiative

The 19th Arab summit began with high hopes for those in the region anxious for a resumption of diplomatic activity. While the political situations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran currently constitute some of the Arab world’s major concerns, the Beirut Arab initiative for solving the Arab-Israeli conflict was this year's top priority. Even Iraqi Foreign Minister Hosheyar Zibari, in a special interview with Al Sumara TV, acknowledged that the Iraqi issue came in second to the Arab initiative. The initiative is in fact, quite revolutionary considering the history of Israeli-Arab negotiations. It offers Israel full peace with all 22 Arab countries in return for a withdrawal to the borders that existed before the 1967 war and a "just solution" to the problem of the Palestinian refugees. If the initiative was unveiled in 2002 why is it now being taken seriously by the Israelis, Americans, and the Arabs?

The answer may have less to do with a renewed desire for a peaceful world and more to do with a confluence of interests that present an opportunity for a renewed diplomatic process. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who came into power with the premise that Israel will act unilaterally to draw its own borders, has now realized that the unilateral strategy has failed for Israel. Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza strip was done without any sort of negotiation with Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas and was seen by many Palestinians as the result, not of negotiations which had never produced a dismantling of settlements, but of armed struggle against Israeli occupation. It was therefore no surprise that the withdrawal was met with the weakening of Fatah, the election of a Hamas government, and the kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. This distressing outcome made it impossible for Olmert to continue any further withdrawals unilaterally and has resulted in the diplomatic freeze that continued until recently.

Saudi Arabia unveiled the initiative in the aftermath of the September 11th attacks for good reason. The initiative was first made public in the pages of the New York Times by journalist Thomas Friedman. An Israeli official, Dore Gold, pointed out that the key figure making the press contacts for the Saudis was Adel al-Jubeir, who had been sent to Washington to coordinate the Saudis' efforts to improve their declining image in America after it was made public that 15 out of the 19 hijackers on September 11th were Saudis. If this was the reason for the initiative back then, the Saudis have an additional incentive to renew their offer at this time. With Iran’s nuclear program moving ahead unfettered and Iranian influence growing in Lebanon and Iraq, Saudi Arabia is worried about losing its regional hegemony. Iraq’s Shiite government, Bahrain's Shiite majority, and a restive Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia provide an opportunity for Iran to create what King Hussein called, "A Shiite Crescent" comprising Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and parts of the Gulf which is a frightening prospect for Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have already wrested the Palestinian issue away from Iranian and Syrian interference by setting the terms for the Palestinian unity government deal on their own turf in Mecca. By renewing the Beirut initiative, the Saudis may be able to wrest Syria away from its Iranian friends, unite the Arabs, and may be able to put Iranian proxies Hizballah and Islamic Jihad on the defensive.

Israel for its part is not enthusiastic about the initiative. Returning to the 1967 borders without any modification has always been problematic due to large settlements and the location of Jewish holy sites outside of the "green line," specifically around Jerusalem. A "just solution" to the refugee issue which includes returning large amounts of refugees into Israel as opposed to a future Palestinian state triggers an Israeli fear of a demographic threat to the State's Jewish majority. However, what concerns Israel now is Hamas' standing. After having been bruised by a year of boycotts and sanctions, Hamas appears to be coming out of the Mecca unity deal as a winner. While Hamas still maintains a strong presence in the Palestinian government and has not publicly accepting the quartet conditions of renouncing violence and recognizing Israel, the Palestinian unity government is nevertheless being looked at as legitimate and therefore worthy of foreign aid by European governments eager to avoid a humanitarian disaster in the Palestinian territories and by a US administration eager to have some sort of diplomatic achievement after the Iraq debacle. Therefore, by cautiously agreeing to consider parts of the Saudi initiative which it ignored back in 2002 while Hamas refrains from endorsing it, Israel again puts Hamas on the defensive and makes them look like the rejectionist party. It is because of these circumstances that we are likely to see a renewed interest in the Arab initiative specifically as Condoleezza Rice travels to the region in the near future.

How Did a Global Jihad Network Take Root in Nationalist Palestinian Camps?

For those of you who read the interesting New York Times article about the infiltration of Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon by global jihadist groups with ideological ties to Al-Qaeda will find the following report by Bernard Rougier interesting. While these camps were previously hotbeds of Palestinian nationalism, hosting groups such as Fatah and even leftist groups such as the PFLP and DFLP, the internal politics of Lebanon makes it impossible for Lebanese security forces to enter the camp which makes these autonomous entities within Lebanon an ideal refuge for Jihadists.

Interview with Abu Mazen

In the Israeli daily, Yedioth Ahronoth, Nahum Barnea and Ronny Shaked report from their meeting in Ramallah with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

"Toward the end of our interview with him - the first interview since he joined Hamas in a national unity government - Mahmoud Abbas decided to talk about the future. It did not sound good. 'I have one year and nine months left in office,' he said. 'I am counting every day. I will complete my term of office and that will be it. I will not run for another term.'

What will you do then, we asked him? 'Come pick me up and we can go visit Safed, the city of my birth,' he answered. When Abu Mazin sought permission in 1994 to visit Safed, there was an almighty uproar among the Israeli Right, which said that the planned visit was a clever attempt to exercise the right of return. Abu Mazin made it as far as the home of MK Ahmed Tibi in Taibeh and, after consultations, decided instead to visit Haifa, where he was greeted by Mayor Amram Mitzna. 'The people who stopped me from visiting Safed do not know what peace is' says Abu Mazin.

One year and nine months is a long time in the life of a politician. But it is like the blinking of an eye in the Middle East. Abu Mazin, 72, will not admit as much, but he knows that if he finished his legal term of office, it will be as president of a non-country that carried the name of a people without a nation. As things currently look, it is unlikely that his term of office will be remembered as anything but a footnote in the tragic history of his people. His term is the period between the Arafat era and the abyss, between Arafat and Hamas.

Who will come after you, we asked: 'Whoever the people choose,' was the immediate answer.

Marwan Barghouti?

'Maybe,' Abu Mazin replied, without any trace of enthusiasm.

Haniyeh and Hamas? 'Maybe.'

To a large extent, the efforts that Abu Mazin put into giving legitimacy to the new Palestinian government have been superfluous. The international boycott has already been broken. It was broken despite the objections of the Israeli government. The U.S. cannot stand in the way. The U.S. Consul General in Jerusalem met last week with the new Palestinian finance minister in Ramallah. It is no coincidence that Salam Fayyad was appointed finance minister: he is a great favorite of the U.S. administration. On Saturday, when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrives at the Muqata'a in Ramallah, she will not only meet Abu Mazin; she will also see Fayyad. Haniyeh, for the time being at least, has not been invited.

In this battle, Israel will almost certainly be defeated. Hamas has won. It has got its foot into the door of legitimacy. In addressing the Israeli people, Abu Mazin is simply trying to make the Israeli rearguard action shorter.

You appointed Mohammad Dahlan as your national security adviser. You made him part of the Hamas government.

'Dahlan is not in the government,' he insists. 'There is a distinction. The government is the government. It has its own agenda and the president has an agenda of his own. I have already stated that they will be responsible for domestic problems; I will take care of external problems.'

What are your thoughts on negotiations between Israel and Syria?

'From my point of view, you have to talk to Syria. Why should you not talk to them? Barak talked to them.'

There is, we said, a long-standing Israeli understanding that the Israeli government has the right to talk to only one Arab party at any one time. If we talk to Syria, we cannot talk with you.

'Nonsense,' he said. 'We are offering you a peace deal with 57 Moslem countries. You will no longer be a pariah state. The Israeli flag will fly from Indonesia and Mauritania to Morocco. Everyone is ready to back the Saudi initiative - which is the most serious peace plan since 1948.'"

New Poll of Iraqis

USA TODAY/ABC News recently released their results of a comprehensive poll of Iraqis. Among their findings:

While 58% support a unified Iraq, an equal majority predict that within five years Iraq will divide into regional governments or even separate states.

A 43% plurality say democracy would be the best political system for Iraq, a marked decline in 16 months. In an ABC News survey before elections in 2005, 57% chose democracy.

The USA TODAY/ABC News survey was taken door-to-door in all 18 provinces of Iraq from Feb. 25 to March 5.

It found sharp and sometimes contradictory attitudes toward U.S. troops:

•A 51% majority, including one-third of Shiites and 94% of Sunni Arabs, say attacks on U.S. forces are acceptable political acts. Only 7% of Kurds agree.

•In all, 83% of Shiites and 97% of Sunni Arabs oppose the presence of coalition forces in Iraq; 75% of Kurds support them. By more than 3 to 1, Iraqis say the presence of U.S. forces is making the security situation worse.

•Even so, only 35% of Iraqis want U.S. forces to leave immediately. Two-thirds say they should remain until security is restored, the Iraqi government is stronger or Iraqi security forces are better able to operate independently.

Full version of the poll can be found
here

Dear Bandar

Writing in the popular Israeli daily newspaper Maariv, Shlomo Gazit urges the man behind the Saudi peace initiative, Prince Bandar, to adopt the same tactic that Egypt's Anwar Sadat did 30 years ago - visiting Jerusalem and addressing the Israeli people directly.

"An open letter to Bandar bin Sultan: In one week's time, the Arab League will convene in Riyadh to formulate and re-approve the Saudi Arabian peace initiative as the outline of a full and comprehensive peace deal between Israel and her Arab neighbors. It is supposed to be a peace deal that will end a six-decade long conflict.

I am writing to you as a member of the Israeli peace camp, an Israeli who believes that there is a 'partner' for negotiations and agreement on the Arab side and that the gaps between the Arab position and the Israeli position are bridgeable.

We are yet to see the final draft of the plan that is set to be approved by Riyadh. I can only hope that there will be no radicalization of the previous draft and that you will not place additional stumbling blocks on the path of talks. Moreover, I see the document that you are due to unveil as the starting point for the Arabs' negotiations, just as you must see the statements coming out of Jerusalem as Israel's opening stance. If this is not the case, and if you see the decisions taken in Riyadh as the final Arab position, a position that cannot be moved one iota and that leaves no room for flexibility or willingness to negotiate, then I am afraid that both I and the majority of the Israeli public will unite in rejecting the Riyadh document.

If your intentions are positive and you truly wish to end the conflict and reach an agreement, and the resolutions you pass will act merely as a starting point for talks, I am afraid that my government, the current government in Jerusalem, will not be able to rise to the challenge. The current Israeli government is politically weak. It will not make any brave or controversial decisions that could lead to its ouster. I am afraid that the prime minister and his ministers will come up with countless rationalizations to justify their refusal to enter into talks.

I appreciate your initiative, your honest desire to end the violence and the grave dangers of continued conflict, and your aspiration to promote a diplomatic solution. Under these circumstances, Israel cannot allow the opportunity for peace to slip through its fingers.

I call on the Royal House of Saud, to the heads of state who will be gathering in Riyadh next week and to you personally - choose the same path that the late Egyptian president, Anwar Sadat, chose 30 years ago. Do not condition your willingness to enter into talks on decisions made by Ehud Olmert. This is too important and we cannot let the opportunity go by. I call on you: bypass the Olmert government, come to Jerusalem and speak directly to the Israeli people. By doing so, you would force the government to accept the peace proposal, to listen to what the majority of the Israeli public wants - and that is peace talks. Sadat once said that 90 percent of the obstacles that were preventing peace between Israel and the Arabs were psychological. By visiting Jerusalem and addressing the Knesset, he claimed that he removed this barrier.

I urge you: immediately after the end of the Riyadh summit, publicly announce that you want to come to Jerusalem and that you intend to present the Israeli people and the Israeli government with the plan adopted at the Arab League summit and that you want to explore immediate avenues to starting peace talks.

No Israeli government could turn down such a proposal. No government could avoid entering into a diplomatic process. The weakness of the coalition would not be able to withstand the pressure and the unequivocal voice of the people, which will welcome you with flowers and open arms."