Sunday, June 22, 2008

Did Syria secretly tell Israel to bomb its own nuclear reactor?

A new report claims that the al-Kibar weapons site that Israel bombed in Syria last year was working to aid the Iranian nuclear program, with the help of North Korean scientists.

First, there are some questionable elements to this report. It is unclear why the Iranians would want to house one of their research facilities in a shaky country like Syria, or to share nuclear knowledge with the Syrians. And it appears somewhat convenient that this story comes out now: Israel and Syria have been very friendly (relatively speaking) lately, while Israel just finished a major military drill designed to send a public message of warning to Iran -- and now suddenly this nuclear site was an Iranian site after all.

However, let's assume that the story is accurate. Here's a novel theory about what may have been going on behind the scenes, and how Israel found out about al-Kibar in the first place. Maybe the Iranians basically forced the weapons site on their weaker ally, Syria, a few years ago so that they could conduct the more weapons-related part of their nuclear research far from the watchful eyes of the IAEA, and with plausible deniability as to Iranian involvement. Having enough problems of its own, Syria was unhappy about being used as Iran's nuclear playground, but, internationally isolated and domestically shaky, the Syrian regime couldn't very well tell their biggest ally, Iran, to buzz off and do their dirty work elsewhere. So instead they secretly invited their old friends the Israelis to clean up the mess. That would explain how the Israelis found out about the site and how they were able to destroy it so easily. That would also explain not only why the Syrians have been so very quiet after having their country bombed by Israel, but also why relations between Syria and Israel have apparently improved dramatically in the wake of the incident -- with current speculation about direct talks and a possible Olmert-Assad handshake.

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Friday, May 30, 2008

Israel's Mid-Life Crisis

At 60, Israel appears to be going through what the cliches of pop psychology might call a mid-life crisis. Since the exit of Ariel Sharon, the last larger-than-life leader from the days of Israel's youth, everything has seemed just a bit blah for Israel. Here are some key symptoms of the crisis:

* Self-questioning - The secular majority in Israel seems to have lost its moral bearings and sense of purpose. This is not necessarily praise for the religious population, since their own moral vision can often be insular and restrictive. Yossi Klein Halevi puts the problem succinctly:

When socialism waned, the society lost its moral certainties. No official ethos has replaced Labor Zionism. Add three more factors--the rise of consumerism, the constant threat of war and terrorism, and the ongoing occupation--and the strain on ethical norms becomes formidable.


* Conspicuous consumption and indulgence in luxuries - Hello, Ehud Olmert. While Olmert is probably somewhat unfairly vilified for his extravagances (which aren't really that extreme, he has become a symbol of corruption, hedonism, and moral bankruptcy among Israel's leadership. Similar indulgences in corruption and hedonism among Palestinian Fatah leaders, combined with the inability of those leaders to achieve political goals, led to the erosion of popular support for Fatah and the rise of Hamas. Unfortunately, there is no party in Israel that can claim freedom from corruption--certainly not the religious parties. As an individual leader, Tzipi Livni has the cleanest hands around, if only because they are the least experienced.

* Sexual affairs, especially with someone much younger - The prime exhibit is Moshe Katsav, Israel's previous President, who was accused of rape. Of course, sexual affairs are nothing new, but Katsav's hesitance to resign contributed to the sense of shamefulness and crisis.

* A deep sense of remorse for goals not accomplished - Peace process, anyone? After 60 years, it's still a crowd-pleaser in much of the Muslim world to rant about wiping Israel off the map. Israelis are asking what, if anything, have they accomplished in terms of gaining acceptance from their neighbors?

* Desire to achieve a feeling of youthfulness - The military glories of Israel's youth resound in the national consciousness, but they are increasingly remote memories in a country that feels impotent in light of today's threats, despite its large military arsenal. The inconclusive Second Lebanon War was a major national embarrassment, as are the daily rocket attacks on southern Israeli towns from Gaza--not to mention the steady stream of belligerent verbal abuse wafting over from Iran.

How to cope?

The best treatment for a mid-life crisis is to change one's mental outlook, finding new purpose in your life without giving into quick fixes and poor decisions. It will take a new, younger generation of political leaders to restore faith, credibility, optimism, hope and a sense of civic mission to in Israel. Those leaders need to stand up soon, because political, military, and social challenges loom large on the horizon.

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