A New Opportunity for the 2002 Arab Initiative

The 19th Arab summit began with high hopes for those in the region anxious for a resumption of diplomatic activity. While the political situations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran currently constitute some of the Arab world’s major concerns, the Beirut Arab initiative for solving the Arab-Israeli conflict was this year's top priority. Even Iraqi Foreign Minister Hosheyar Zibari, in a special interview with Al Sumara TV, acknowledged that the Iraqi issue came in second to the Arab initiative. The initiative is in fact, quite revolutionary considering the history of Israeli-Arab negotiations. It offers Israel full peace with all 22 Arab countries in return for a withdrawal to the borders that existed before the 1967 war and a "just solution" to the problem of the Palestinian refugees. If the initiative was unveiled in 2002 why is it now being taken seriously by the Israelis, Americans, and the Arabs?

The answer may have less to do with a renewed desire for a peaceful world and more to do with a confluence of interests that present an opportunity for a renewed diplomatic process. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who came into power with the premise that Israel will act unilaterally to draw its own borders, has now realized that the unilateral strategy has failed for Israel. Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza strip was done without any sort of negotiation with Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas and was seen by many Palestinians as the result, not of negotiations which had never produced a dismantling of settlements, but of armed struggle against Israeli occupation. It was therefore no surprise that the withdrawal was met with the weakening of Fatah, the election of a Hamas government, and the kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. This distressing outcome made it impossible for Olmert to continue any further withdrawals unilaterally and has resulted in the diplomatic freeze that continued until recently.

Saudi Arabia unveiled the initiative in the aftermath of the September 11th attacks for good reason. The initiative was first made public in the pages of the New York Times by journalist Thomas Friedman. An Israeli official, Dore Gold, pointed out that the key figure making the press contacts for the Saudis was Adel al-Jubeir, who had been sent to Washington to coordinate the Saudis' efforts to improve their declining image in America after it was made public that 15 out of the 19 hijackers on September 11th were Saudis. If this was the reason for the initiative back then, the Saudis have an additional incentive to renew their offer at this time. With Iran’s nuclear program moving ahead unfettered and Iranian influence growing in Lebanon and Iraq, Saudi Arabia is worried about losing its regional hegemony. Iraq’s Shiite government, Bahrain's Shiite majority, and a restive Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia provide an opportunity for Iran to create what King Hussein called, "A Shiite Crescent" comprising Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and parts of the Gulf which is a frightening prospect for Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have already wrested the Palestinian issue away from Iranian and Syrian interference by setting the terms for the Palestinian unity government deal on their own turf in Mecca. By renewing the Beirut initiative, the Saudis may be able to wrest Syria away from its Iranian friends, unite the Arabs, and may be able to put Iranian proxies Hizballah and Islamic Jihad on the defensive.

Israel for its part is not enthusiastic about the initiative. Returning to the 1967 borders without any modification has always been problematic due to large settlements and the location of Jewish holy sites outside of the "green line," specifically around Jerusalem. A "just solution" to the refugee issue which includes returning large amounts of refugees into Israel as opposed to a future Palestinian state triggers an Israeli fear of a demographic threat to the State's Jewish majority. However, what concerns Israel now is Hamas' standing. After having been bruised by a year of boycotts and sanctions, Hamas appears to be coming out of the Mecca unity deal as a winner. While Hamas still maintains a strong presence in the Palestinian government and has not publicly accepting the quartet conditions of renouncing violence and recognizing Israel, the Palestinian unity government is nevertheless being looked at as legitimate and therefore worthy of foreign aid by European governments eager to avoid a humanitarian disaster in the Palestinian territories and by a US administration eager to have some sort of diplomatic achievement after the Iraq debacle. Therefore, by cautiously agreeing to consider parts of the Saudi initiative which it ignored back in 2002 while Hamas refrains from endorsing it, Israel again puts Hamas on the defensive and makes them look like the rejectionist party. It is because of these circumstances that we are likely to see a renewed interest in the Arab initiative specifically as Condoleezza Rice travels to the region in the near future.