Iraq: What Now?

Since a few weeks ago, we have finally seen a turning point with regards to the War in Iraq. The turning point has nothing to do with actual events occurring on the ground in Iraq, but rather with our own administration's acknowledgement of a situation that has been steadily deteriorating for the past 3 years.

On October 18, Bush was asked by George Stephanopoulous whether he agrees with columnist Thomas Friedman who had written in a New York Times that day that the situation in Iraq may be compared to the Tet offensive in Vietnam 40 years earlier. His answer?

"He could be right...There's certainly a stepped-up level of violence, and we're heading into an election."

The Tet offensive was a combined offensive by the Vietcong and the North Vietnamese army against South Vietnamese and US forces. Even though the Communist forces failed to achieve their tactical goals and sustained massive casualties, the offensive was a hugpropagandada victory for the Vietcong and public opinion against the Vietnam war continued to grow. President Johnson saw his support fall sharply and withdrew as a candidate in March 1968.

The White House sought to clarify Bush's remarks by stating:

"The full context was that the comparison was about the propaganda waged in the Tet Offensive...and the president was reiterating something he's said before - that the enemy is trying to shake our will," spokeswoman Dana Perino said in a statement.

Nevertheless, Bush comparing the current Iraq war with a war that history regards as a failure should be an acknowledgment of a change of attitude from the President, (even among critics who claim hpossesseses an ignorance on historical issues such as the Vietnam war stemming from his political apathy during the 1960's's).

If this wasn't confirmation enough, a week later the White House announced that Bush would refrain from using the now familiar catch-phrase, "Stay the Course". "He's stopped using it," said Tony Snow, the White House press secretary. "It left the wrong impression about what was going on and it allowed critics to say, `Well, here's an administration that's just embarked upon a policy and not looking at what the situation is,' when, in fact, it is the opposite." Bush has not used the phrase since a stump speech back in August.

The developments coincide with reports that the US failed to track weapons shipments going to Iraq, has had a falling out with the Prime Minister of Iraq, and has suffered one of the deadliest months in terms of troop casualties.

Those hoping for a refreshing, forthright and honesassessmentnt of the war shouldn't get their hopes up explains George Will in Newsweek.

Fareed Zakaria, also in the current Newsweek, explains that the best hope for Iraq can be a result somewhat like the Korean War:

For Americans, the Korean War was not a defeat the United States had gathered a coalition to resist aggression but it was certainly not a victory. After three years of fighting and 4 million dead, Korea remained divided. The North a communist bulwark, the South itself turning into a nasty dictatorship. Asia was bubbling over and the danger of war with the forces of international communism seemed greater than before.

Something like the close of the Korean War is, frankly, the best we can hope for in Iraq now. One could easily imagine worse outcomes - a bloodbath, political fragmentation, a tumultuous flood of refugees and a surge in global terrorist attacks. But with planning, intelligence, execution and luck, it is possible that the American intervention in Iraq could have a gray ending - one that is unsatisfying to all, but that prevents the worst scenarios from unfolding, secures some real achievements and allows the United States to regain its energies and strategic compass for its broader leadership role in the world.

Meanwhile, Anthony Cordesman at The Center For Strategic and International Studies has a new report, (The Almost Good, The Bad, and the Ugly) out on options for Iraq that includes, among the "ugly" options, supporting an Iraqi strongman or a coup! So much for "Freedom".