Arab Public Opinion and Perceptions of Violence

Arab Public Opinion and Perceptions of Violence

What is Changing?

Fares Braizat

CSIS
October 10, 2006


On October 10, 2006, Fares Braizat, a visiting fellow at CSIS, presented data from polling on Arab Public Opinion regarding violence, terrorism, and militant groups in the Middle East and came to some interesting conclusions:

Trends

1. Overall, there is diminishing support for violence and violent groups.
2. There is support for radicals OUTSIDE of the respondents home country.

Polling Data shows that the Arab public is increasingly uncomfortable with violence and terror. At the same time, the Arab public is growing more radical in their opposition to US and Israeli policy in Palestine and Iraq. The paradox is that there is more disagreement with the US and Israel, but not more support for terror tactics and radical groups.

This effect could be due to negative consequences militant groups are having in their own societies. Support for Hamas has gone down in Palestine as a result of increasing lawlessness and poverty there. Support for Al-Qaeda has decreased substantially in Jordan (presumably as a result of the Amman hotel bombings). Hizballah's actions and armament are still contested issues in Lebanon where many question the utility of capturing Israeli soldiers and provoking a harsh response.

On the other hand, all these organizations, have broad support in the greater Arab World. The percentage of Sunnis in Lebanon who have a positive view of Hassan Nasrallah stands at 50% while the percentage of Sunnis in Egypt, Jordan, Palestine and other Sunni Arab states who favor Nasrallah exceeds 70%. Support for Hizballah in Palestine is much higher than support for Hamas in Palestine and for Hizballah in Lebanon while support for Hamas is higher in Arab states outside of Palestine than it is in the Palestinian territories.

There is a clear trend of Arab public more likely to support outside insurgencies or those with a global audience like Iraq and Palestine on an emotional level. There is a sense of satisfaction among Arabs that these organizations are able to stand up to Israel and the United States but also a recognition that these movements can have destructive consequences for their home societies.

There is a majority of Jordanians and Palestinians who are in favor of negotiations with Israel and 43% of Lebanese who are in favor of a peace treaty with Israel. Public opinion is turning more moderate at home, but more radical with respect to other countries.